|The Secrets of Economic Indicators: Hidden Clues to Future Economic Trends and Investment Opportunities, 2nd Edition
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"This is the real deal. Baumohl miraculously breathes life into economic indicators and statistics." --The Wall Street Journal "This is the most up-to-date guide to economic indicators and their importance to financial markets in print. The coverage of less-reported indicators, especially those from nongovernment sources, is hard to find elsewhere. The inclusion of the actual published tables helps the newer student of the markets find the data in the public release. For anyone trying to follow the economic data, this should be next to your computer so that you can understand and find the data on the Internet." --David Wyss, Chief Economist, Standard and Poor's "I find Baumohl's writing fascinating. In addition to the famous indicators, he includes many that I hadn't heard of. I really appreciate that he tells you exactly where to find each indicator on the Web. Just about anyone who's serious about understanding which way the economy is headed will want to read this book. It could be a classic." --Harry Domash, Columnist for MSN Money and Publisher, Winning Investing Newsletter "Bernie Baumohl has accomplished something of real value in The Secrets of Economic Indicators. He has successfully demystified the world of financial and economic news that bombards us in our daily lives. Both professional investors and casual observers of the world of finance and economics will be grateful for what he has done. The constant stream of heretofore bewildering news from the world of business and finance can now be easily understood. Every businessperson or investor should keep a copy of Baumohl's book close at hand as he or she catches up on the business, stock market, and economic events of the day. It is great, at long last, to have someone who has eliminated what may have been so perplexing to so many and to have done so with such remarkable clarity." --Hugh Johnson, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer of Johnson Illington Advisors "Bernie Baumohl has written a must-read educational and reference book that every individual investor will find indispensable for watching, monitoring, and interpreting the markets. The daily flow of high frequency economic indicators is the stuff that makes financial markets move and that can signal the big trends that make or break investor portfolios.Most important, Bernie's long experience in reporting economics for Time Magazine helps make the 'dismal science' lively and interesting. " --Allen Sinai, President and Chief Global Economist, Decision Economics, Inc. "Baumohl has a gift for taking a complicated subject and allowing it to read like a fast-moving novel. My confidence in reading and understanding economic indicators as portrayed in this book made me realize the possibilities this information holds for improving my personal net worth as well as navigating my business toward higher profits. I recommend this book if you care about your future finances." --Morris E. Lasky, CEO, Lodging Unlimited, Inc.; Manager and consultant for $6 billion in hotel assets; Chairman, Lodging Conference; Chairman, International Hotel Conference "I think this is an excellent book. It's well written, accessible to a variety of readers, deals with an interesting and important subject, and covers the topic well. It deserves to get a lot of notice and use." --D. Quinn Mills, Alfred J. Weatherhead, Jr., Professor of Business Administration, Harvard Business School "Economic statistics, employment data, Federal Reserve surveys.Think they are boring? Think again! They can drive markets into a frenzy, causing billions of dollars to be made or lost in an instant. Bernie Baumohl brilliantly, clearly, and, yes, entertainingly describes what every investor and business manager should know about economic indicators: which ones move markets, how to interpret them, and how to use them to spot and capitalize on future economic trends. The Secrets of Economic Indicators is an extraordinary and insightful work--an enormously important contribution to the body of financial literature. Read it and then keep it on your desk. Consult it the next time you are deluged with a flurry of economic statistics. Your understanding certainly will be enhanced, and your portfolio will likely be as well." --Robert Hormats, Vice Chairman, Goldman Sachs (International) "If you want to make money investing, this is an essential trend-tracking tool that will help get you to the bank. This book is the real deal. Bernard Baumohl miraculously breathes life into deadly economic indicators and boring statistics ...he knows what he's talking about, and his expertise proves it."--Gerald Celente, Director, The Trends Research Institute COMPLETELY UPDATED! THE PLAIN-ENGLISH, UP-TO-THE-MINUTE GUIDE TO ECONOMIC INDICATORS: WHAT THEY MEAN, AND HOW TO USE THEM! Every day, investments bounce wildly in response to new economic indicators: statistics that provide crucial clues about the future of the economy and the markets. Now, you can use these indicators to make smarter investment decisions, just like the professionals. You don't need an economics degree, or a CPA--just The Secrets of Economic Indicators, Second Edition! Using up-to-the-minute examples and real-world stories, former TIME Magazine senior economics reporter Bernard Baumohl illuminates every U.S. and foreign indicator that matters right now. You'll learn where to find them, what their track records are, how to interpret them, and how to use that information to make better decisions. Baumohl has thoroughly updated this best-seller with new data, new examples, new indicators, and revised analyses--including a new assessment of the value of yield curves in predicting business cycles. Thousands of investors and business planners swore by the First Edition: these updates make it even more valuable./ New! Today's 10 most crucial leading indicators Better ways to predict economic turning points in time to profit / Get ahead of the curve with the latest U.S. indicators New insights into U.S. employment, monetary policy, inflation, capital flows, and more / Emerging foreign indicators you need to track From China to India, Europe to Brazil...and beyond / Making sense of indicators in conflict What to do when the numbers disagree / Finding the data Free Web resources for the latest economic data / Which economic indicators really matter right now? / What do they mean for stocks, bonds, interest rates, currencies...your portfolio? / How can you use them to make faster, smarter investment decisions? / Simple, clear, non-technical, friendly, usable...the only book of its kind! / By Bernard Baumohl, renowned economic analyst and former award-winning TIME Magazine financial journalist New edition, with extensive new coverage: / Many new U.S. and global indicators, from new employment reports to box office receipts / New examples and up-to-the-minute data / Updated analyses of yield curves and other key metrics / More international coverage / New rankings of leading economic indicators, and much more About the Author xiii What's New in the Second Edition? xv Preface xvii Acknowledgments xxiii Chapter 1 The Lock-Up 1 Chapter 2 A Beginner's Guide: Understanding the Lingo 17 Chapter 3 The Most Influential U.S. Economic Indicators 25 Chapter 4 International Economic Indicators: Why Are They So Important? 325 Chapter 5 Best Web Sites for U.S. Economic Indicators 373 Chapter 6 Best Web Sites for International Economic Indicators 381 Index 387
- Must Have for Investors & Traders Alike
I have been a technical analyst for years trading stocks and forex but I could never really understand the "Fundamentals" and their importance at major turning points in the economy. Bernard Baumohl has made this very complex and confusing topic so easy to understand and learn, even for dummies and complete idiots like myself. If you ever want to invest or trade, or just learn how the economy really works, you absolutely should get this book first. Plus it's also loaded with lots of useful links and even important stuff in other countries that affect the US economy. 5 stars is not enough, this book deserves 10 stars, just like other books written by Martin J. Pring, John Murphy, Steve Nison, Kathy Lien and Boris Schlossberg....more info
- Excellent Reference on Economic Indicators
This book does a great job of explaining a long list of macro-economic indicators, their application and relative predictive importance. Highly recommended for those who want to understand how economists measure and attempt to forecast the direction of economies around the world....more info
- Good Resource
The author does a thorough job detailing each individual variable that he covers. In addition, he gives a good framework for conceptualizing where each variable fits into the overall economic landscape. Categorizing each variable by High, Medium, and Low impact along with an explanation as to why is another important and helpful feature. The individual variable synopsis can be a bit redundant if you are reading cover to cover but the redundancy helps to increase its value as a ready reference.
I recommend that all financial/business analysts have something like this unless they are so fully immersed in this data that it is second nature.
The only reason for 4 stars is that it is pointed a bit too much toward the lay reader (but of course this was the author's original audience so, bravo). ...more info
- Eye Opener
This book really made market indicators simple and easy to understand. I appluad the author for his format. If you need to understand all of those fancy indicator lingo this is the book to read....more info
- Not believing these phoney reviews
This book is another book that promises market-beating returns. This sort of promise is often dubious. I also don't believe that EVERYONE rates this at FIVE STARS and that almost EVERY REVIEW was FOUND HELPFUL. Shame on publishers who pimp their own books on here!...more info
- Economic Indicators
A good guide to understand the portray of the US economy, particularly for people who has no economics background. ...more info
- A great book for students and lousy choice for Investors!
The utility of this book is directly related to what your objective is going to be ..
1. If you are a student who want to learn economic indicators, this book is a must read. In simple language and interesting examples, every economic indicator is explained.
2. If you are like me, an investor trying to decipher the economic indicators to make meaning to your investing decisions , you are better off tracking the tigers directly than analysing the terrain and weather patterns ( with some high level information that you can pick up from yahoo finance,CNBC etc ..example : Missed Durable goods meant stocks are down today )
Still if you are determined to understand the economic indicators, this is how you can maximise your time..
Every Chapter is an economic indicator has the following sections:
Market sensitivity (read the chapter if it is high or skip it entirely)
Why is it important ( read it)
How is it computed ( skip it)
Market Impact ( read it)
The world is already complicated and in a frenzy. Spend your time with your kids, get some fresh air or even watch TV than reading these type of academic books (Exception Students and to some extend Money managers)
Usually market takes care of the numbers within the first 15 minuts of a trading day on bad or good news!I am sure Warren buffett wont spend more than 15 minutes of his time a week digesting these news ( if at all he follows it)
If you trade sporadically, You may chose to read my review about an excellent stock market related book... Something that you can act upon!
The Successful Investor: What 80 Million People Need to Know to Invest Profitably and Avoid Big Losses...more info
- A Superb Work
Any trader or investor - indeed anyone with an interest in how our economy works - would certainly profit from owning and using this book. Baumohl takes what is normally considered to be a rather dry subject - economics - and succeeds in making it both interesting and highly informative reading. A must-have reference for anyone & everyone who has more than a smattering of a reason to pay attention to the ups & downs of this fascinating subject...Highly recommended...more info
- Only because it's not a novel
I'm rating it 4 stars instead of 5 only because it's not action packed :) The subject of this book would normally be extremely boring and academic, but the author puts it so well that you actually want to continue reading. I'm in the Finance industry and it was still so valuable, because you learn from the indicators from hearing about them. But the information in this book sometimes made me understand better how the economy works, and how news of economic indicators affect my investment portfolios....more info
- This Book is Totally a Waste!
This book offers nothing that can't easily be obtained by a simple internet search. The book reads like a manual with no soul whatsoever. I could have written the same book with mere copy and paste technique. The high reviews given to this book were given by 10 year olds. Don't waste your time and definitely your money!
I wish I could give a 1/2 star on this!!...more info
- Great guide to economic indicators
This is an esaly introduction to economic indicators, mainly the american ones. It contains some interesting tips about indicators, like "thumb rules" in some cases. It briefly introduces each of the most important indicators to the US economy (as well to other major economies) and it's effects on the markets. Those interested in detailed information of some indicator will need to go deeper looking for it's original sources....more info
- Excellent Basic Information About Important Economic Data
Baumohl begins by telling us that at least 43 American economic indicators are published each month by our government, and how they are released under strict conditions that prevent anyone from early (unfair) access. He also explains that foreign indicators are also important - nearly half of S&P 500 company earnings come from outside the U.S., and they own about 15% of U.S. equities, 24% of corporate bonds, and 40% of U.S. Treasuries, totalling some $1.5 trillion.
"The Secrets" then briefly reviews "The Lingo", before spending most of its pages covering "The Most Influential Economic Indicators." Employment data are first, and Baumohl explains how they are derived, their limitations, how sensitive the bond and stock markets are to each one of them, etc. Retail Sales, Consumer Confidence and others are then also reviewed in the same manner. (It was particularly interesting to learn why Consumer Confidence survey data is more erratic than the University of Michigan's data on the same topic - the latter largely uses the same group from one survey to the next.)
Then its on to foreign indicators, and free Internet sources for the data. (Economic indicator data used to be available only to those purchasing special services, per Baumohl.)...more info
- A good start
For anyone interested in understanding the terminology behind the financial pages and Web periodicals, this book does its job. For many of the standard economic indicators, such as the consumer price index, personal income and spending, and the producer price index, its author discusses their importance, how they are calculated, and their impact on the bond, equity, and currency markets. His discussions are mostly qualitative, especially when assessing the impact of the indicators as "low", "medium", "high", and "very high." This was done no doubt to make the book appeal to a wider readership that does not have the mathematical preparation to delve into the topics from a more quantitative perspective. The discussion on the `yield curve' is very good, and in addition gives the reader insight into its status as one of the indicators that is not computed by governmental agencies. The author also gives a lengthy list of the best Websites to visit for discussions on both U.S. and international economic indicators.
There are some omissions in the book whose inclusion would have been helpful, especially to those readers who are interested in the mortgage markets. The author does discuss the NAHB housing market index, construction spending, new home sales, and the NAR existing home sales, but discussions on the OHFEO house price index and the Case/Shiller house price index are omitted. These indices have become very important in recent months due to the turmoil in the mortgage markets, and they have appeared many times in newspapers throughout the world. There are also no discussions on the forecasting performance of the various indicators, again probably due to the goal of keeping the book length at a manageable level. For the index of leading economic indicators for example, the author could have discussed this briefly without getting into the deep technical details.
- Best book on Economic indicators I've read
This book was EXACTLY what I was looking for. I wanted a book that will tell me which economic indicators stocks were most sensitive to, what they were, and what I should look for.
This book for perfect for that. The look lists out the 10 most important indicators for not only stocks, but bonds and the US Dollar currency as well. Not only that, it lists our almost every economic indicator regardless if it's in the top 10 or not. So you read up on every economic indicator regardless of where it's in the top 10 or not.
It also includes foreign economic indicators which was very useful.
If you want to know about economic indicators, this is the only book you need....more info
- For the Savvy Investor
Fascinating insights. Gives you a more thorough understanding of savvy investing, which is all about reading the market and becoming aware of smart opportunities. Well written and well done!
Dr. Henry Toof
Cambridge, MA...more info
- Economic Indicators Make for Surprisingly Compelling Reading
Who would have thought there could be an entertaining book on economic indicators? As the Director of The Economic Outlook Group, a renowned consulting firm that evaluates global economic trends and risks, Bernard Baumohl is well qualified to write a tome about economic indicators no matter how dry the subject matter may seem to be. Luckily for us, he has instead written an excellent primer for understanding them and showing how to apply them to predicting future stock and bond market activity, as well as how the currency market will respond. Baumohl is an informative writer not caught up in details or equations that would alienate all but the most academic. With an easy-to-read writing style, he focuses on the indicators which have the greatest influence in the markets, selectively analyzing the ones that do the best job in predicting where the economy is heading. Moreover, he seeks out the indicators where the data are found most easily and in turn, how we can best interpret them. The author smartly presents his findings in an encyclopedic fashion to provide a run-down on 47 U.S. economic indicators, plus a few essential international indicators.
The book starts with "the lock-up," which he describes as the U.S. government's process to assure simultaneous availability to everyone of economic data when they are released. Such are the safeguards necessary to avoid leaks which would give anyone advance information that could be used improperly. The next section highlights a pivotal chart that takes the components of real gross domestic product - consumption, investment, inventory change, government spending, and net exports - and signs of price pressures, consequently matching each segment up with the key economic indicators for that segment. Subsequent tables list the economic indicators most sensitive to stocks, bonds, and the dollar, as well as the top ten international economic indicators. Suddenly, heretofore foreboding statistics become clear. Baumohl also provides valuable insight into the unpredictable housing market - with several chapters devoted to how to interpret the real estate-related indicators. Quite thorough in his treatment, he also provides a helpful guide to the economic jargon encountered in using the data, such as annual rates, real and nominal dollars, moving averages, revisions and benchmarks, and seasonal adjustments. Perhaps to the chagrin of registered investment advisors, he explains several important indicators that can be used for privately forecasting economic growth ignored by the mainstream press and goes as far as explaining how you can easily find these updated indicators (or compute them yourself) in most cases free of charge.
With this background, the book then turns to a description of individual economic indicators. Each entry for the economic indicators listed explains not only the what, why and how behind it but also what impact it can have on stocks, bonds and the dollar. Baumohl goes into the market sensitivity of each indicator (very high, high, medium, low), its availability on the Internet, release time, frequency, source, and revisions. I also find it interesting how he can lucidly explain how each indicator is computed. The author also goes into a relatively cursory discussion of international economic indicators and why they are important. In the same format as that provided for U.S. indicators, he also lists ten most important international indicators that include data for Germany, France, the Euro zone, the OECD, China, and Brazil. The last sections discuss the best Web sites for U.S and international economic indicators. This is a smart, informative read for anyone curious about the intricacies behind economic forecasting and the effect it has on our lives....more info
- Insightful and well-written
Everyone seems to know the importance of economic indicators and that when each one is released it may affect interest rates, inflation, stock prices, home prices, or a myriad of other items that directly affect our national and personal economy. In this book the author provides an excellent education on the various indicators including how they are determined, what they mean, why they have the effect they do when issued, and how to interpret them. I really enjoyed that the author makes this somewhat complex subject approachable to the average person. Mr. Baumohl actually makes economics interesting and easy to understand. Businessmen, investors, and anyone else who needs to understand economic indicators and what they mean would be well served by picking up a copy of The Secrets of Economic Indicators....more info
Great book to guide and teach the in's and out's of the economic reports....more info
- Clear and Informative Description of Economic Indicators
The old saying goes: 'Forecasting the future is easy, It's being right that's hard.' Is this book going to help you to be right more often. MAYBE.
There are a bunch of reports generated on a regular basis by a bunch of people, there are a lot of people who then look at these reports and make projections as to what the markets are going to do. If you understand what generates the reports, and if you can get the report at the same time everyone else gets it, and if you can then analyze it in the same way that they do, then maybe you can make some decisions that will lead you to a profit.
The trouble comes when you see that something is up nicely, but the market has predicted that it would have gone up more and so views this as a bad sign.
In this book Mr. Baumohl does a supurb job of listing the available indicators, describing what they use as input data, and gives some clues as to what these indicators might be predicting. A warning though. Just as you think you understand what indicators are driving the hot shots of the market, the next show you see or report you read will have the experts all of a sudden referring to some other indicator.
Great job of explaining what the experts already know -- good luck....more info
- Great book
Before I read this book, I had no knowledge in any aspect of the field of economics. After reading this book, I was prepared enough to earn an easy A in the macroeconomics course I took this summer at the local college. The book was easy enough to read for someone with no economics background; and it had enough advanced information to completely prepare myself for an easy A. I strongly recommend this book to everyone, no matter of your previous knowledge. You will learn a lot. ...more info
- Permanent fixture on my shelf
A great book which describes in great detail all the important indicators. If you trade the news, then this book is a must. Even if you dont, its an interesting read of how these indicators are derived....more info
- How And Why The Markets Move
Secrets of Economic Indicators is an excellent book on what drives and affects the economy and the markets. From inflation,consumer spending,unemployment,housing, to the Federal Reserve. Each section explains market sensitivity and why. Would not recommend this book for market-timing necessarily but to understand why the markets go up and down. The last 2 chapter have websites for U.S. and International Economic Indicators for further information. Well done....more info
- Excellent book
Very good book to get an idea about all the economic indicators that can make or break the economy....more info
- A reference book must have
I was a little surprised to see Chief Bootknocka's review that this book in any way purports to produce market-beating returns. This book will make you more fluent in your understanding of economic indicators: their import, measurement, periodicity and accuracy. As economic indicators are the tea leaves in trying to read what is happening with economic trends and as these indicators will affect your economic health, you owe it to yourself to cultivate a basic understanding. With that basic understanding, you can sift through the prodigous commentary (and divergent opinions) on what is going on with the economy and make a considered judgment for yourself and plan accordingly. Well written and organized. Who knows, you might be able to strike up some interesting cocktail party conversation and your friends will think you are a genius!...more info
- Excellent book
This book tends to solve the problem. It brings all the scattered pictures together. It is well written, very interesting and easy to read. I have a comp. sci. undergrad degree. I used this book for my first economics class in grad school....more info
- A Good Reference Guide to Economic Indicators and Their Sources
This book by Baumohl is a good book to have in one's reference library if you use government and private indicators to try to ascertain where the economy and, more specifically, the stock market might be headed. Bernard has not only listed all the most common indicators, but has given the source, quality, reliability, timing, and importance of each indicator upon the markets.
Will this book make you a better trader or investor? By itself, probably not. But, it is always useful to understand what indicators the 'general public' is viewing and how these indicators tend to impact on an un-informed investor's actions. It is probably a book more useful to a seasoned investor who is continuing to work to improve his investment analysis methods and his understanding of how various indicators can 'psychologically' impact the markets.
- Great explanation, easy understanding!
The author definitely achieved his goal of explaining reports, some of them more complex than others, with simple words. I recommend this book not only to people who work in the financial area, but to all kind of investors....more info